This is an article from: Nikkei Asia:
Abishur Prakash is the founder of The Geopolitical Business, Inc, a Toronto-based strategy advisory firm, and produces the Mr. Geopolitics insights for global leaders.
Since 2020, the global perception of China has shifted. After decades of embracement and outreach, China has been getting the cold shoulder.
Each nation has its reasons.
A decade ago, nobody was trying to keep China at bay. Today, many walls and barriers restrict China’s footprint. But tomorrow, views on China may be about to change again.
The moves U.S. President Donald Trump makes toward allies and adversaries could end up making America the “black sheep.” In fact, China may have already caught wind of such a possible switch on the horizon.
Over the past few months, in anticipation of Trump’s return, China has shored up ties with several key Asian nations, engaging in “rapid rapprochement” toward relationships that have been simmering for years.
With Japan, China proposed restarting imports of Japanese seafood, which were banned in 2023 after Tokyo released treated Fukushima water into the Pacific Ocean. With India, an agreement has been reached on an almost half-decade border dispute. With Australia, trade ties, derailed after the pandemic, have been restored, as Australian exports to China passed $145 billion in 2023, the highest on record.
Why is China doing this?
One explanation is that China is stabilizing its relationship with the U.S.’s sphere of influence to ensure American allies are not as angry at Beijing as they are at Washington. However, simply buying seafood will not reset China-Japan relations. And India is not part of that U.S. sphere.
A more plausible explanation is that China is positioning itself for a changing of the winds.
As Trump angers nations, some could move closer to China to offset his moves. Across Asia, China is opening doors that have been slowly closing, in preparation for countries rebalancing themselves.
This does not mean China will try to be everybody’s best friend. That train left the station a long time ago. But, if today, there are only two paths for countries in dealing with China (cosying up as a partner, or giving it the cold shoulder), now there is a third: China as a more stable, pragmatic and approachable nation than the U.S. — even with the hangups countries have toward Beijing.
The boldest Trump moves, like the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico or the withdrawal of the U.S. from international treaties and bodies like the Paris climate agreement or the World Health Organization, may push many to walk on the path China is now laying down.
